Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
While Iran has effectively choked off oil exports by its Arab neighbors through the Strait of Hormuz, it has continued shipping its own crude largely uninterrupted.
Since the start of joint US–Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran has targeted at least 16 vessels and tankers, sharply curbing flows through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Data from the commodity intelligence firm Kpler, seen by Iran International, shows Iranian crude exports averaging more than 1.5 million barrels a day (bpd) so far this month through the strait.
Discharges at Chinese ports have also risen, increasing from about 1.17 million bpd in February to more than 1.25 million so far in March. Figures from the International Energy Agency and maritime intelligence provider Lloyd’s List similarly point to a surge in Iran’s shipments.
Last week, Iran also loaded a two-million-barrel cargo from Jask — its only export terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz — marking the first such shipment since October 2024.
Before the escalation, roughly 14.7 million barrels of crude and 4.8 million barrels of refined products moved daily through the strait — about one-fifth of global oil consumption.
Among Persian Gulf producers, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipeline routes bypassing Hormuz. Even those alternatives were already partly utilized.
According to Lloyd’s List, combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman via non-Persian Gulf ports averaged about 3.5 million barrels a day in recent months but have climbed to roughly 6 million — still far short of offsetting lost flows.
President Donald Trump said Friday the US Navy would “soon” begin escorting oil tankers through the waterway, though officials have not outlined a timeline or operational details.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, pushed back Sunday on suggestions Tehran was seeking talks, telling CBS’s Face the Nation: “We have never asked for a ceasefire … we are ready to defend ourselves for as long as it takes.”
Lloyd’s List estimates that even with naval escorts, no more than about 10 percent of lost volumes could realistically be restored — echoing the limited recovery seen after Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb.
The IEA said Thursday that disruptions have cut global supply by about 8 million barrels a day of crude and another 2 million barrels of condensates and natural gas liquids.
In response, its 32 member countries plan to release roughly 400 million barrels from strategic reserves over 120 days beginning next week, including about 172 million barrels from the United States and 80 million from Japan.
Even so, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday there were “no guarantees” oil prices would fall in the coming weeks.
